经济和社会变化事实趋势预测 SCIE

期刊简介预计审稿时间： 12 Weeks

The background and content of "Prediction of Economic and Social Change Trends" involve multiple aspects, including changes in the global economic landscape, prospects for the Chinese economy, and analysis and prediction of social situations. Firstly, from the perspective of the global economic landscape, 2021-2035 is a period of profound adjustment in the global political and economic landscape. During this period, globalization was an irreversible trend that had a profound impact on the development of the world economy. The global economic growth rate is showing a downward trend, and the growth rate of developed economies may further slow down, while the growth rate of developing countries has declined. At the same time, China has become the main stabilizing force for long-term global economic growth, and it is expected that China's economic status will become even more important in the future, with its economic scale surpassing that of the United States, and China and the United States will become the world's two superpowers.

Secondly, from the perspective of the outlook for the Chinese economy, 2024 is the year when the Chinese economy continues to recover, with the main tone being "comprehensive recovery". China will continue to implement an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and the deficit size will continue to expand. The deficit ratio will return to above 3% to achieve the goals of stabilizing expectations, growth, and employment. In addition, promoting the rapid growth and development of new quality productive forces, as well as building a modern industrial system, are also key trends in China's economic development.

《经济和社会变化事实趋势预测》的背景和内容涉及多个方面，包括全球经济格局的变化、中国经济的展望，以及社会形势的分析与预测。首先，从全球经济格局的角度来看，2021至2035年是一个全球政治经济格局深刻调整的时期。这一时期，全球化是一个不可逆转的趋势，对世界经济的发展产生了深远的影响。全球经济增长速度呈现趋势性下降，发达经济体的增长速度将可能进一步放缓，而发展中国家的增长速度有所下降。同时，中国成为全球经济长期增长的主要稳定力量，预计未来中国的经济地位将更加重要，经济规模将超过美国，中美将成为全球两个超级大国。

其次，从中国经济的展望来看，2024年是中国经济继续恢复的一年，主基调是“全面复苏”。中国将继续执行积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，赤字规模会继续扩大，赤字率将重新回归到3%上方，以达到稳预期、稳增长、稳就业的目标。此外，推动新质生产力的快速成长和发展，以及建设现代化产业体系也是中国经济发展的关键趋势。

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